NBA best bets: Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 4 prediction, odds, expert pick for Sun. 5/12

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds

Sunday, May 12, 8 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets figured some things out in Game 4 with Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon bringing the ball up instead of Jamal Murray. That allowed Denver to initiate offense earlier and took some of the pressure off of Murray, who is still clearly dealing with an injury.

Jokic even said postgame that the key to victory was “getting the ball over half-court in two or three seconds.” It seems like a small thing, but every second of the shot clock matters in playoff basketball and you could see the difference that made in the game.

Denver posted a half-court offensive rating of 112.4, its best half-court performance of the postseason by a full 11 points. It was also the Nuggets' most efficient shooting game in over a month as they shot 66.4% effectively from the field. They also converted on 56.5% of their 3s!

It was a bit of an offensive outlier, but the quality of shots was definitely very good and ultimately, I’d argue that it looked like a repeatable offensive effort. Denver also did a great job of limiting turnovers in the first half, which allowed it to set its half-court defense much more than in the first two games.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves were completely overmatched in Game 3 and a lot of the issues that plagued them during the regular season re-emerged.

Minnesota's half-court offense was often stagnant and ranked just 12th in the NBA during the regular season. We saw the Timberwolves settle for many early shot-clock 3s as they had a 45% 3-point attempt rate, but converted on just 30% of those looks.

Overall, they finished with a half-court offensive rating of just 82.7 in Game 3. That’s a 30-point gap from Denver’s half-court offense, so clearly the Wolves are going to have to make some offensive adjustments if they want to bounce back in Game 4.

The ball was just much too sticky in Game 3, so I’d expect pace and early offense to be a bit more of a focus. The Wolves were still decent in transition off of turnovers in Game 3, but there were much fewer Denver turnovers in the game. I think we could see the Wolves offense struggle once again if the Nuggets play under control on the offensive end and force the Wolves into the half-court.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

Betting Pick & Prediction

I’m totally comfortable backing Denver as an underdog after seeing it play with urgency in Game 3. My biggest concern with the Nuggets was motivation as they just looked disinterested in Game 2, but Game 3 alleviated my worries. Not only did they play with more effort, but they also found some edges on offense and on defense with Jokic playing at the level more in ball screening actions. Trust the Nuggets on the moneyline (+124) to even up this series.

Pick: Nuggets +124